Senate Control Index -- GOP Seats 50.8
I have not updated the Senate Control Index in a bit more than two weeks. While races have moved up and down, the overall number is still remarkably close to where it was, down just 0.1 seats.
However, if you look at each race and "call" it by current trading, the GOP would lose 6 seats. Overall, the Tradesports data still gives Republicans a 69% chance of keeping the Senate and just a 33% chance at the House. Democrats have a better shot, at 40%, according to the trading data, at taking 25 or more seats.
Trading data indicates that split control is the least likely outcome. Both parties have an equal chance at taking control of both houses -- about 28% each.
The GOP Senate candidates with the biggest trading gains since Oct. 16 have been in MD (+$0.12) and TN (+$0.15). Big losses have been recorded in MO (-$0.10), OH (-$0.26) and VA (-$0.21). Interestingly, the GOP now seems to have a better shot at taking the MD and NJ open seats than in retaining OH, PA or RI incumbents. GOP challengers in WA and MI are on a par with these endangered incumbents.
Here is the current race by race chart of the competitive seats.
Click here to learn more about the index.
