Rhode Island: In politics, there is no waiting until next year.
So we see a new independent poll out in Rhode Island. While it shows good news, frankly we’re surprised and think the race is a lot closer than that. A lot closer.
It could be that the debates last week (TV debate 1 and TV debate 2) have led to a collapse in support for Chafee. On the other hand, there could be something wrong in the poll. We saw a similar out-of-the-box poll in the Nevada 2 congressional race that showed a huge lead for a candidate our PAC supported. Yet she wound up losing by 421 votes.
Since it is still baseball season, I’ll use some baseball analogies on strategy we think Laffey should be employing. After all, he’s a businessman and baseball is a business.
A manager who saves his best pitcher in the first round of the playoffs to win the next round often won’t even get there. You have to throw everything into winning game 5 of the first round of the playoffs, even if it means using your ace game one starter to win the deciding game in relief. If that leaves you with a Boof Bonser to open the ALCS, well at least you are in the ALCS.
In politics, you can’t win the general election if you don’t win the primary. We know this is stunningly obvious, but sometimes candidates take their eyes off the ball.
If the independent poll is right and Laffey wins by crushing Chafee, great. The side benefit is that it greatly boosts his chances of being the winner in November. It could also lead to huge national publicity that will cause a surge of online fundraising from people excited about changing Washington’s business as usual.
Even before the poll, it looks to us like Laffey thinks, and is acting like, he is going to win. We think he is being a little too confident.
Yesterday’s anti-Laffey TV spots outnumbered Laffey’s promotional spots by 108 to 27.
Then we read Laffey still has over $600,000 in the bank.
But looking at the amount of money Laffey is spending on TV makes us wonder, is he ever going to spend the money? Why is he letting Chafee and the NRSC beat him to a pulp without an effective response?
Laffey should put everything he has to win in the primary race in these last two weeks. We certainly don’t want to have to explain to our members why Laffey lost by a fraction, or worse by 421 votes, yet didn’t spend all of the money.
We are optimistic but not complacent.
Far from it. A report filed tonight will show our PAC pumped another $165,000 into the race.
Likewise, we hope that Laffey is going to spend every last dime he’s raised to ensure his primary victory.
Don’t wind up like the Chicago Cubs. In politics, there is no waiting until next year.
PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.
