New Poll in Rhode Island
The Club for Growth recently sponsored a poll in Rhode Island. Below is a memo written by the company that conducted the poll that provides a summary of the results:
National Research Inc. is pleased to present the results of a survey of 300 Very Likely Republican Primary voters. The survey was conducted on May 21-24 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% at the 95% confidence interval. The sample contains both Republican and Independent voters.
Lincoln Chafee shows every sign of being a vulnerable incumbent. His personal image ratings are upside-down, while Stephen Laffey's image shows a very strong 2:1 favorable to unfavorable ratio. In addition, the ballot is a statistical tie. In fact, given Chafee's ceiling and the tendency of undecided voters to break to the challenger, if the election were held today, Laffey would win.
Chafee's overall image is 45% favorable and 51% unfavorable. These are obviously poor numbers, but almost unthinkable in a primary election.
- Among conservatives, Chafee's image is 35%-61%
- Among Republicans, Chafee's image is 43%-53%
- Among voters with an opinion of both candidates, Chafee's image is 43%-57%. This is a critical finding, as voters who have formed an opinion of both candidates are the most engaged, and provide a window to the future, showing the trend that occurs as more and more voters form an opinion of both men.
- Among undecided voters, Chafee's image is 29%-50%
Laffey's image, on the other hand, is 54% favorable and 27% unfavorable.
- Among conservatives, Laffey's image is 60%-21%
- Among Republicans, Laffey's image is 57%-24%
- Among voters with an opinion of both candidates, Laffey's image is 67%-34%
- Among undecided voters, Laffey's image is 38%-21%
The ballot is a statistical tie. Chafee leads 45.7%-44.3%, with 8% undecided.
- Among conservatives, Laffey leads 52%-34%.
- Among Republicans, Laffey leads 46%-44%.
- Among voters with an opinion of both candidates, Laffey leads 51%-42%.
Given undecided voters' image ratings of both candidates, Chaffee is close to his ceiling. He will likely top out at 48%, and Laffey would win the race if it were held today by 52%-48%.
